In any economy, banks play an important role.
They serve as water to seeds of impressive and profitable ideas that blossom and usher growth and prosperity.
In fact, the extent of business in the banking sector is indicative of an economy’s health. For a growing economy like India, the banks in India or the banking sector assumes greater significance given its pivotal role in reviving the economy.
In this context, it is important to understand how healthy are the banks in India to withstand the demand-destructive impact of the widespread Coronavirus.
Let us understand the issues of Banks in India in detail:
Since the widespread of the Coronavirus in India, banking has been one of the early sectors which faced a potential and immediate slump in business.
Increasing job losses made the business situation more adverse.
Job losses resulted in lower-income. This increased possibility of defaults on repayments on existing loans. Besides this, the outlook for consumption and demand for credit in the near future seemed bleak.
No wonder the share price of banks in India and non-banking financial companies (NBFC) were under pressure.
The Nifty Bank TRI went down to 22739 on March 23, 2020, from 43223 on December 31, 2020. Among the mutual fund’s sectoral schemes, banking funds were the worst performers as funds lost 11.39% in the present calendar year, according to Value Research.
Also recently, small-sized bank Lakshmi Vilas Bank merged with DBS Singapore. On the whole, these facts may indicate the sector is facing a huge crisis.
But this is a notion of skeptics and naysayers.
One of the prompt measures of the Reserve Bank of India of a moratorium on equated monthly installment was a step in the right direction to save the sector from any potential collapse.
Nonperforming Assets (NPAs) were recognized in a slower manner.
Besides this, the Supreme Court ordered all banks not to classify Covid-19-related defaults as NPA till further notice. RBI also announced several measures including one-time restructuring (OTR) of loans which helped partly mitigate the Covid-19 impact.
To a certain extent, there were a few concrete signs of improvement in key business variables of banks in India.
Recoveries have been improving.
Value of gross NPA of private sector banks stood at Rs 1.87 lakh crore at the end of the quarter ended September 2020 compared to Rs 1.88 lakh crore at the end of quarter ended September 2018.
In the same period, the value of gross NPA of public sector banks in India fell to Rs7.9 lakh crore from Rs9.9 lakh crore.
This improvement in asset quality was on account of recoveries by banks on large corporate accounts. Also, the gross NPA ratio— a ratio that gives the relation between the total gross NPA to total advances (loans) of the bank—for public sector banks and private sector banks stood at 9.3% and 4.9% respectively at the end of September 2020 quarter.
Two years ago, in the same quarter, the gross NPA ratio for public sector banks and private sector banks stood at 13.6% and 5.9% respectively. Besides this, banks’ loan loss provisions—funds set aside from current earnings in anticipation of probable losses—also came down.
RBI had asked banks to make additional 10% provisions over a period of March and June 2020 quarters.
Even after considering this, provisions in the banking sector have come down to 0.53 lakh crore at the end of the quarter ended September 2020 compared to Rs 0.7 lakh crore two years ago in the same quarter.
Also, the crucial question of the availability of capital to banks has been addressed to a certain extent in recent months. RBI had prohibited banks from declaring dividends with a view to conserve capital.
RBI also deferred implementation of the rule of maintaining capital adequacy ratio at 11.5% to April 1, 2021, from September 30, 2020. These two measures have helped banks in maintaining adequate capital.
Even the beleaguered Yes Bank raised Rs15,000 crore through a follow-on offer.
Public sector banks in India such as State Bank of India and Punjab National Bank have also raised additional capital to the tune of Rs 16,500 crore.
Thanks to the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) from the government and falling interest rates, bank credit as of October 23, 2020, stood at a robust 103.4 lakh crore compared to 97.7 lakh crore in September 2019.
Though these statistics hold the promise of slow but definite improvement in business in the banking sector, it will be too early to pronounce that the sector is out of the woods.
In the coming quarters, the movement of NPA must be monitored.
Also, the sector’s litmus test of revival and resilience will begin once RBI turns off its tap of liquidity. Presently, the banking sector has a 35% weight in the Nifty 50 index. This cannot be overlooked.
Hence, it is important for investors to understand they remain selective about their investments in the sector. This includes sticking to the big players as relatively smaller players make all efforts to revive and survive.