Powergrid Corporation Valuation Excel Model and Intrinsic Value

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Powergrid Corporation Valuation : About the Company

Power grid Corporation is the Government of India undertaking with 55.37% equity stake. The company has been dividend-paying since 1993 and is the Central Transmission Utility (CTU) of India. Power Grid operates majorly across 3 segments namely Transmission, Consultancy and Telecom. The company also has investments in Energy Efficiency and Smart Grids.

The company operates in the Utility sector in which market dominance comes through scale, distribution network, capacity and power generation efficiency. In the transmission segment, the company has 163,743+ cKm (Circuit Kilo Meter) Transmission Lines and 248+ Sub-Stations. Further, they also have >99 % of System Availability and 412,459+ MVA Transformation Capacity which is the largest in the Industry. In the consultancy segment, the company provides Transmission related consultancy to more than 150+ domestic clients and a has a global footprint in 20 countries catering more than 25+ international clients.

In the telecom segment, the company owns and operates 60,946+ km of Telecom Network and has 688+ points of presence. Power Grid also has Intra City network in 105 cities across India and network availability of >99.5%. This overall indicates a wide economic moat for the company in terms of capacity, scale and distribution network. From here, we go ahead with Powergrid Corporation Valuation and Intrinsic Value of its shares.

Read more here: Powergrid Corporation Shares Fundamental Analysis 

Methodology Used:

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows. DCF analysis attempts to figure out the value of an investment today, based on projections of how much money it will generate in the future. The following step by step procedure is followed.

  1. Determining the Revenue Growth Rates
  2. Forecasting the Financial Statements
  3. Deriving the FCFF and FCFE
  4. Calculating the Terminal Value
  5. Calculating the Discount Rate
  6. Discounting the Cashflows
  7. Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares
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You can also get the formula based DCF Excel Model from below:

Step 1: Determining the Revenue Growth Rates

We arrive at the below table by using the past and expected future performance of both the company and the economy. This along with adjustments to changes in the management expectations, extraordinary events and other macro factors give the revenue growth rates for Powergrid Corporation Valuation.

Financial Year Revenue Growth Rate
Year 1 6%
Year 2 8%
Year 3 10%
Year 4 9%
Year 5 8%
Revenue Growth Rates: Powergrid Corporation Valuation

Step 2: Forecasting the Financial Statements

The financial statements are forecasted for a period of 5 years using the annual report data of the company. The assumptions used for forecasting are tabulated below. The Excel model is completely editable and can be adjusted for specific changes which may happen over a period of time.

Financial Statements Forecast : Powergrid Corporation Valuation
Financial Statements Forecast : Powergrid Corporation Valuation

Step 3: Deriving the FCFF and FCFE

Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) represents the amount of cash flow from operations available for distribution after accounting for depreciation expenses, taxes, working capital, and investments. FCFF is a measurement of a company’s profitability after all expenses and reinvestments. It is given as follows.

Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is a measure of how much cash is available to the equity shareholders of a company after all expenses, reinvestment, and debt are paid. FCFE is a measure of equity capital usage.

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F/S Items (INR Millions) Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Free Cash Flow to Firm 111995 103737 90505 125935 164997
Free Cash Flow to Equity 259904 176324 220715 253362 279433
FCFF and FCFE values: Powergrid Corporation Valuation

Step 4: Calculating the Terminal Value

Terminal value (TV) is the value of a business or project beyond the forecast period when future cash flows can be estimated. It assumes that a business will grow at a set growth rate forever after the forecast period. Terminal value often comprises a large percentage of the total assessed value.

Terminal Value Calculation Units INR Millions
Free Cash Flow to Firm 164997.19
Growth Rate 5.00%
Cost of Capital 9.11%
Terminal Value 4214379.86
Terminal Value: Powergrid Corporation Valuation

Step 5: Calculating the Discount Rate

DCF analysis helps assess the viability of a project or investment by calculating the present value of expected future cash flows using a discount rate. Here we use the Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to discount the cash flow. The below table from the excel model shows the calculation of WACC for Powergrid Corporation Valuation.

WACC Calculation for Powergrid Corporation Valuation.
WACC Calculation for Powergrid Corporation Valuation.

Step 6: Discounting the Cashflows

The WACC and the Cost of Equity for the company calculated in the above step are then used to discount the FCFF, FCFE and Terminal Value calculated in Step 3 and 4. In our case, we’ll only consider the FCFF based Intrinsic price of the shares as it represents the cash flow to all the suppliers of capital and not only to the equity shareholders. Thus we arrive at Present value of future FCFF for Powergrid Corporation Valuation. (Units are INR Millions)

PV of FCFF and FCFE  for Powergrid Corporation Valuation.
PV of FCFF and FCFE for Powergrid Corporation Valuation.

Step 7: Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares

Dividing the PV of the FCFE and Terminal Value (the Value of the entire firm) by the number of outstanding shares we get the per share intrinsic value. We can compare this price with the current market price of the stock to get the Discount or Premium to its intrinsic price.

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Powergrid Corporation Valuation Units
PV in INR Million 2523152
No of Shares Outstanding (In Million) 5232
Intrinsic Value 482.25
Current Market Price of Share 189.00
Current Discount/Premium -61%
Intrinsic Value of the Shares: Powergrid Corporation Valuation

Powergrid Corporation Valuation and Intrinsic Share Price = INR 482.25

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References: Investopedia
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You can read more about the company on its website!
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(Note: All the research done by me is only for educational purposes and should not be seen as Investment recommendations. I am a Research analyst and not a SEBI registered Investment Advisor. My research completely reflects my personal opinions and not of my employers. Kindly do your own due diligence before Investing)

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