SAIL Valuation Excel Model and Intrinsic Value of Shares- BDV

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SAIL Valuation : About the Company

Steel Authority of India (SAIL) is the largest steel producer in the country. It is a Government of India undertaking and has 5 integrated steel plants, 3 speciality plants and 1 subsidiary. It manufactures 50+ products with 500 grades of steel and in more than 5000+ dimensions. The major components manufactured includes Flange sections, railway tracks and wheels, beams and TMT bars. The steel business is not highly distinguished and mostly depends on costs and volumes. SAIL, however, has shown consistent growth in production capacity and also in sales volume. The business depends on some macro factors which are also indicating good growth prospects for the Indian steel industry and SAIL stands to benefit from this.

The Global steel demand slowed in FY 2019 due to the uncertainty, trade tensions, and geopolitical issues. The Chinese steel exports were severely impacted and many countries imposed anti-dumping duties on China. However Indian companies benefitted from this and demand for Indian steel increased, even for domestic consumption. Overall  India turned net exporter of steel on a year-on-year basis for the period between April 2019 to February 2020. It exported a total of 7.8 MT during this period which is a 39% increase over the last year. From here, we go ahead with SAIL Valuation and Intrinsic Value of its shares.

Read more here: SAIL Shares Fundamental Analysis 

Methodology Used:

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows. DCF analysis attempts to figure out the value of an investment today, based on projections of how much money it will generate in the future. The following step by step procedure is followed.

  1. Determining the Revenue Growth Rates
  2. Forecasting the Financial Statements
  3. Deriving the FCFF and FCFE
  4. Calculating the Terminal Value
  5. Calculating the Discount Rate
  6. Discounting the Cashflows
  7. Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares
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You can also get the formula based DCF Excel Model from below:

Step 1: Determining the Revenue Growth Rates

We arrive at the below table by using the past and expected future performance of both the company and the economy. This along with adjustments to changes in the management expectations, extraordinary events and other macro factors give the revenue growth rates for SAIL Valuation.

Financial Year Revenue Growth Rate
Year 1 -8%
Year 2 2%
Year 3 10%
Year 4 8%
Year 5 7%
Revenue Growth Rates: SAIL Valuation

Step 2: Forecasting the Financial Statements

The financial statements are forecasted for a period of 5 years using the annual report data of the company. The assumptions used for forecasting are tabulated below. The Excel model is completely editable and can be adjusted for specific changes which may happen over a period of time.

Financial Statements Forecast : SAIL Valuation
Financial Statements Forecast : SAIL Valuation

Step 3: Deriving the FCFF and FCFE

Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) represents the amount of cash flow from operations available for distribution after accounting for depreciation expenses, taxes, working capital, and investments. FCFF is a measurement of a company’s profitability after all expenses and reinvestments. It is given as follows.

Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is a measure of how much cash is available to the equity shareholders of a company after all expenses, reinvestment, and debt are paid. FCFE is a measure of equity capital usage.

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F/S Items (INR Millions) Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Free Cash Flow to Firm 120145 20748 10194 15033 17970
Free Cash Flow to Equity 269599 22868 98338 93829 91333
FCFF and FCFE values: SAIL Valuation

Step 4: Calculating the Terminal Value

Terminal value (TV) is the value of a business or project beyond the forecast period when future cash flows can be estimated. It assumes that a business will grow at a set growth rate forever after the forecast period. Terminal value often comprises a large percentage of the total assessed value.

Terminal Value Calculation Units INR Millions
Free Cash Flow to Firm 17970.48
Growth Rate 5.00%
Cost of Capital 11.18%
Terminal Value 305180.63
Terminal Value: SAIL Valuation

Step 5: Calculating the Discount Rate

DCF analysis helps assess the viability of a project or investment by calculating the present value of expected future cash flows using a discount rate. Here we use the Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to discount the cash flow. The below table from the excel model shows the calculation of WACC for SAIL Valuation.

WACC Calculation for SAIL Valuation.
WACC Calculation for SAIL Valuation.

Step 6: Discounting the Cashflows

The WACC and the Cost of Equity for the company calculated in the above step are then used to discount the FCFF, FCFE and Terminal Value calculated in Step 3 and 4. In our case, we’ll only consider the FCFF based Intrinsic price of the shares as it represents the cash flow to all the suppliers of capital and not only to the equity shareholders. Thus we arrive at Present value of future FCFF for SAIL Valuation. (Units are INR Millions)

PV of FCFF and FCFE  for SAIL Valuation.
PV of FCFF and FCFE for SAIL Valuation.

Step 7: Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares

Dividing the PV of the FCFE and Terminal Value (the Value of the entire firm) by the number of outstanding shares we get the per share intrinsic value. We can compare this price with the current market price of the stock to get the Discount or Premium to its intrinsic price.

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SAIL Valuation Units
PV in INR Million 391381
No of Shares Outstanding (In Million) 4131
Intrinsic Value 94.74
Current Market Price of Share 58.35
Current Discount/Premium -39%
Intrinsic Value of the Shares: SAIL Valuation

SAIL Valuation and Intrinsic Share Price = INR 94.74

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References: Investopedia
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(Note: All the research done by me is only for educational purposes and should not be seen as Investment recommendations. I am a Research analyst and not a SEBI registered Investment Advisor. My research completely reflects my personal opinions and not of my employers. Kindly do your own due diligence before Investing)

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