Tata Consultancy Services Valuation Excel Model & Intrinsic Value

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Tata Consultancy Services Valuation : About the Company

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is an Indian multinational technology company that specializes in information technology (IT) services and consulting, headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India and has its largest workforce based in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. As of February 2021 TCS is the largest company in the IT sector in the world by the Market capitalisation of $169.2 billion. It is a subsidiary of the Tata Group and operates in 149 locations across 46 countries.

TCS is the second-largest Indian company by market capitalisation.Tata consultancy services is now placed among the most valuable IT services brands worldwide. In 2015, TCS was ranked 64th overall in the Forbes World’s Most Innovative Companies ranking, making it both the highest-ranked IT services company and the top Indian company. As of 2018, it is ranked eleventh on the Fortune India 500 list. In April 2018, TCS became the first Indian IT company to reach $100 billion in market capitalisation, and second Indian company ever (after Reliance Industries achieved it in 2007) after its market capitalisation stood at ₹6,79,332.81 crore ($102.6 billion) on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

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In 2016–2017, Parent company Tata Sons owned 72.05% of TCS; and more than 70% of Tata Sons’ dividends were generated by TCS. In March 2018, Tata Sons decided to sell stocks of TCS worth $1.25 billion in a bulk deal. From here, we go ahead with Tata Consultancy Services Valuation and Intrinsic Value of its shares.

Methodology Used:

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows. DCF analysis attempts to figure out the value of an investment today, based on projections of how much money it will generate in the future. The following step by step procedure is followed.

  1. Determining the Revenue Growth Rates
  2. Forecasting the Financial Statements
  3. Deriving the FCFF and FCFE
  4. Calculating the Terminal Value
  5. Calculating the Discount Rate
  6. Discounting the Cashflows
  7. Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares

You can also get the formula based DCF Excel Model from below:

Step 1: Determining the Revenue Growth Rates

We arrive at the below table by using the past and expected future performance of both the company and the economy. This along with adjustments to changes in the management expectations, extraordinary events and other macro factors give the revenue growth rates for Tata Consultancy Services Valuation.

Financial Year Revenue Growth Rate
Year 1 7%
Year 2 14%
Year 3 14%
Year 4 13%
Year 5 12%
Revenue Growth Rates: Tata Consultancy Services Valuation

Step 2: Forecasting the Financial Statements

The financial statements are forecasted for a period of 5 years using the annual report data of the company. The assumptions used for forecasting are tabulated below. The Excel model is completely editable and can be adjusted for specific changes which may happen over a period of time.

Financial Statements Forecast : Tata Consultancy Services Valuation
Financial Statements Forecast : Tata Consultancy Services Valuation

Step 3: Deriving the FCFF and FCFE

Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) represents the amount of cash flow from operations available for distribution after accounting for depreciation expenses, taxes, working capital, and investments. FCFF is a measurement of a company’s profitability after all expenses and reinvestments. It is given as follows.

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Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is a measure of how much cash is available to the equity shareholders of a company after all expenses, reinvestment, and debt are paid. FCFE is a measure of equity capital usage.

F/S Items (INR Millions) Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Free Cash Flow to Firm 343762 362291 421354 483549 548194
Free Cash Flow to Equity 330736 414412 479000 536267 593516
FCFF and FCFE values: Tata Consultancy Services Valuation

Step 4: Calculating the Terminal Value

Terminal value (TV) is the value of a business or project beyond the forecast period when future cash flows can be estimated. It assumes that a business will grow at a set growth rate forever after the forecast period. Terminal value often comprises a large percentage of the total assessed value.

Terminal Value Calculation Units INR Millions
Free Cash Flow to Firm 548193.65
Growth Rate 5.00%
Cost of Capital 10.45%
Terminal Value 10569073.31
Terminal Value: Tata Consultancy Services Valuation

Step 5: Calculating the Discount Rate

DCF analysis helps assess the viability of a project or investment by calculating the present value of expected future cash flows using a discount rate. Here we use the Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to discount the cash flow. The below table from the excel model shows the calculation of WACC for Tata Consultancy Services Valuation.

WACC Calculation for Tata Consultancy Services Valuation.
WACC Calculation for Tata Consultancy Services Valuation.

Step 6: Discounting the Cashflows

The WACC and the Cost of Equity for the company calculated in the above step are then used to discount the FCFF, FCFE and Terminal Value calculated in Step 3 and 4. In our case, we’ll only consider the FCFF based Intrinsic price of the shares as it represents the cash flow to all the suppliers of capital and not only to the equity shareholders. Thus we arrive at Present value of future FCFF for Tata Consultancy Services Valuation. (Units are INR Millions)

PV of FCFF and FCFE  for Tata Consultancy Services Valuation.
PV of FCFF and FCFE for Tata Consultancy Services Valuation.

Step 7: Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares

Dividing the PV of the FCFF and Terminal Value (the Value of the entire firm) by the number of outstanding shares we get the per share intrinsic value. We can compare this price with the current market price of the stock to get the Discount or Premium to its intrinsic price.

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Tata Consultancy Services Valuation Units
PV in INR Million 7659807
No of Shares Outstanding (In Million) 3790
Intrinsic Value 2021.06
Current Market Price of Share 2903
Current Discount/Premium 43%
Intrinsic Value of the Shares: Tata Consultancy Services Valuation

Tata Consultancy Services Valuation and Intrinsic Share Price = INR 2021.06

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References: Investopedia
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You can read more about the company on its website!
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(Note: All the research done by me is only for educational purposes and should not be seen as Investment recommendations. I am a Research analyst and not a SEBI registered Investment Advisor. My research completely reflects my personal opinions and not of my employers. Kindly do your own due diligence before Investing)



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