Titan Company Valuation Excel Model and Intrinsic Value of Shares

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Titan Company Valuation : About the Company

The Titan Company Limited (Titan) was started in 1984 as a small joint venture between the TATA Group and Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (TIDCO). Today Titan has grown to be the fifth-largest integrated watch manufacturer in the world. The company has expanded into underpenetrated markets and created lifestyle brands across different product categories including Perfumes, Accessories and Jewellery.

On a corporate level, the company operates in 4 major market segments with its 16+ major brands. The mass-market segment includes the brand Sonata and is targeted towards value for money range of products. The Mid-market segment includes brands like Titan, Zoop, Fastrack, Mia, Titan eye plus and Skinn. These brands along with some low priced products of Tanishq and Taniera are the main revenue drivers for the company. The premium segment includes brands like Xylys, Tanishq, Nebula and Taneira and the Luxury segment have Favre-Leuba and Zoya brands. These drive profitability for the company. From here, we go ahead with Titan Company Valuation and Intrinsic Value of its shares.

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Read more here: Titan Company Shares Fundamental Analysis 

Methodology Used:

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows. DCF analysis attempts to figure out the value of an investment today, based on projections of how much money it will generate in the future. The following step by step procedure is followed.

  1. Determining the Revenue Growth Rates
  2. Forecasting the Financial Statements
  3. Deriving the FCFF and FCFE
  4. Calculating the Terminal Value
  5. Calculating the Discount Rate
  6. Discounting the Cashflows
  7. Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares

You can also get the formula based DCF Excel Model from below:

Step 1: Determining the Revenue Growth Rates

We arrive at the below table by using the past and expected future performance of both the company and the economy. This along with adjustments to changes in the management expectations, extraordinary events and other macro factors give the revenue growth rates for Titan Company Valuation.

Financial Year Revenue Growth Rate
Year 1 5%
Year 2 -12%
Year 3 34%
Year 4 18%
Year 5 15%
Revenue Growth Rates: Titan Company Valuation

Step 2: Forecasting the Financial Statements

The financial statements are forecasted for a period of 5 years using the annual report data of the company. The assumptions used for forecasting are tabulated below. The Excel model is completely editable and can be adjusted for specific changes which may happen over a period of time.

Financial Statements Forecast : Titan Company Valuation
Financial Statements Forecast : Titan Company Valuation

Step 3: Deriving the FCFF and FCFE

Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) represents the amount of cash flow from operations available for distribution after accounting for depreciation expenses, taxes, working capital, and investments. FCFF is a measurement of a company’s profitability after all expenses and reinvestments. It is given as follows.

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Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is a measure of how much cash is available to the equity shareholders of a company after all expenses, reinvestment, and debt are paid. FCFE is a measure of equity capital usage.

F/S Items (INR Millions) Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Free Cash Flow to Firm 33216 19316 24640 32845 39538
Free Cash Flow to Equity 29838 20102 29357 37388 44538
FCFF and FCFE values: Titan Company Valuation

Step 4: Calculating the Terminal Value

Terminal value (TV) is the value of a business or project beyond the forecast period when future cash flows can be estimated. It assumes that a business will grow at a set growth rate forever after the forecast period. Terminal value often comprises a large percentage of the total assessed value.

Terminal Value Calculation Units INR Millions
Free Cash Flow to Firm 39537.82
Growth Rate 6.00%
Cost of Capital 9.16%
Terminal Value 1324420.55
Terminal Value: Titan Company Valuation

Step 5: Calculating the Discount Rate

DCF analysis helps assess the viability of a project or investment by calculating the present value of expected future cash flows using a discount rate. Here we use the Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to discount the cash flow. The below table from the excel model shows the calculation of WACC for Titan Company Valuation.

WACC Calculation for Titan Company Valuation.
WACC Calculation for Titan Company Valuation.

Step 6: Discounting the Cashflows

The WACC and the Cost of Equity for the company calculated in the above step are then used to discount the FCFF, FCFE and Terminal Value calculated in Step 3 and 4. In our case, we’ll only consider the FCFF based Intrinsic price of the shares as it represents the cash flow to all the suppliers of capital and not only to the equity shareholders. Thus we arrive at Present value of future FCFF for Titan Company Valuation. (Units are INR Millions)

PV of FCFF and FCFE  for Titan Company Valuation.
PV of FCFF and FCFE for Titan Company Valuation.

Step 7: Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares

Dividing the PV of the FCFF and Terminal Value (the Value of the entire firm) by the number of outstanding shares we get the per share intrinsic value. We can compare this price with the current market price of the stock to get the Discount or Premium to its intrinsic price.

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Titan Company Valuation Units
PV in INR Million 756888
No of Shares Outstanding (In Million) 888
Intrinsic Value 852.35
Current Market Price of Share 1423
Current Discount/Premium 67%
Intrinsic Value of the Shares: Titan Company Valuation

Titan Company Valuation and Intrinsic Share Price = INR 852.35

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References: Investopedia
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(Note: All the research done by me is only for educational purposes and should not be seen as Investment recommendations. I am a Research analyst and not a SEBI registered Investment Advisor. My research completely reflects my personal opinions and not of my employers. Kindly do your own due diligence before Investing)

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