Vedanta Limited Valuation Excel Model and Intrinsic Value

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Vedanta Limited Valuation : About the Company

Vedanta is the world’s 6th largest diversified resources company and the largest in India. The company is listed in India as well as on NYSE through ADR (American Depository Receipts). They operate in 5 verticals namely Oil and Gas, Zinc-Lead-Silver, Aluminium and Power, Copper, Iron Ore and Steel. Vedanta has ranked 15th by the Dow Jones Sustainability Index globally in 2019. Hindustan Zinc, a 64.9% subsidiary of Vedanta ranks 11th overall in the Mining and Metal industry based on its performance. From here, we go ahead with Vedanta Limited Valuation and Intrinsic Value of its shares.

The metals and mining industry is characterized by cyclic demand and asset-heavy structure. This reduces profit margins as the capacity increases. Therefore the companies focus on revenue growth in order to improve the quantum of profits. Coming to the company, Vedanta is the 2nd largest Zinc producer in the world with a mining capacity of 1000 kilo tonne. The company has 2.2% inducted impact on Indian GDP and contributes 0.4% directly. The indirect contribution to the economy through its supplier network is as large as 1% of India’s GDP. This shows the scale of operations which the company has. Significant technical expertise and capital are required to achieve a scale like this, but the company is still vulnerable due to its week financials.

Read more here: Vedanta Limited Shares Fundamental Analysis 

Methodology Used:

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows. DCF analysis attempts to figure out the value of an investment today, based on projections of how much money it will generate in the future. The following step by step procedure is followed.

  1. Determining the Revenue Growth Rates
  2. Forecasting the Financial Statements
  3. Deriving the FCFF and FCFE
  4. Calculating the Terminal Value
  5. Calculating the Discount Rate
  6. Discounting the Cashflows
  7. Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares
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You can also get the formula based DCF Excel Model from below:

Step 1: Determining the Revenue Growth Rates

We arrive at the below table by using the past and expected future performance of both the company and the economy. This along with adjustments to changes in the management expectations, extraordinary events and other macro factors give the revenue growth rates for Vedanta Limited Valuation.

Financial Year Revenue Growth Rate
Year 1 -12%
Year 2 -5%
Year 3 14%
Year 4 2%
Year 5 4%
Revenue Growth Rates: Vedanta Limited Valuation

Step 2: Forecasting the Financial Statements

The financial statements are forecasted for a period of 5 years using the annual report data of the company. The assumptions used for forecasting are tabulated below. The Excel model is completely editable and can be adjusted for specific changes which may happen over a period of time.

FCFF and FCFE values: Vedanta Limited Valuation
Financial Statements Forecast : Vedanta Limited Valuation

Step 3: Deriving the FCFF and FCFE

Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) represents the amount of cash flow from operations available for distribution after accounting for depreciation expenses, taxes, working capital, and investments. FCFF is a measurement of a company’s profitability after all expenses and reinvestments. It is given as follows.

Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is a measure of how much cash is available to the equity shareholders of a company after all expenses, reinvestment, and debt are paid. FCFE is a measure of equity capital usage.

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F/S Items (INR Millions) Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Free Cash Flow to Firm 114097 107966 86380 72805 89776
Free Cash Flow to Equity -1906 20762 212745 47445 99591
FCFF and FCFE values: Vedanta Limited Valuation

Step 4: Calculating the Terminal Value

Terminal value (TV) is the value of a business or project beyond the forecast period when future cash flows can be estimated. It assumes that a business will grow at a set growth rate forever after the forecast period. Terminal value often comprises a large percentage of the total assessed value.

Terminal Value Calculation Units INR Millions
Free Cash Flow to Firm 89776.37
Growth Rate 5.00%
Cost of Capital 13.24%
Terminal Value 1144423.91
Terminal Value: Vedanta Limited Valuation

Step 5: Calculating the Discount Rate

DCF analysis helps assess the viability of a project or investment by calculating the present value of expected future cash flows using a discount rate. Here we use the Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to discount the cash flow. The below table from the excel model shows the calculation of WACC for Vedanta Limited Valuation.

WACC Calculation for Vedanta Limited Valuation.
WACC Calculation for Vedanta Limited Valuation.

Step 6: Discounting the Cashflows

The WACC and the Cost of Equity for the company calculated in the above step are then used to discount the FCFF, FCFE and Terminal Value calculated in Step 3 and 4. In our case, we’ll only consider the FCFF based Intrinsic price of the shares as it represents the cash flow to all the suppliers of capital and not only to the equity shareholders. Thus we arrive at Present value of future FCFF for Vedanta Limited Valuation. (Units are INR Millions)

PV of FCFF and FCFE  for Vedanta Limited Valuation.
PV of FCFF and FCFE for Vedanta Limited Valuation.

Step 7: Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares

Dividing the PV of the FCFF and Terminal Value (the Value of the entire firm) by the number of outstanding shares we get the per share intrinsic value. We can compare this price with the current market price of the stock to get the Discount or Premium to its intrinsic price.

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Vedanta Limited Valuation Units
PV in INR Million 627798
No of Shares Outstanding (In Million) 3705
Intrinsic Value 169.45
Current Market Price of Share 181.00
Current Discount/Premium 7%
Intrinsic Value of the Shares: Vedanta Limited Valuation

Vedanta Limited Valuation and Intrinsic Share Price = INR 169.45

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References: Investopedia
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(Note: All the research done by me is only for educational purposes and should not be seen as Investment recommendations. I am a Research analyst and not a SEBI registered Investment Advisor. My research completely reflects my personal opinions and not of my employers. Kindly do your own due diligence before Investing)

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