Indian Oil Valuation Excel Model and Intrinsic Value of Shares

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Indian Oil Valuation : About the Company

The company operates in the downstream Oil and Natural gas industry where market dominance comes from scale, distribution network, capacity and technical know-how. Indian Oil accounts for nearly half of India’s petroleum market share and sold about 82 million metric tonnes (MMT) of petroleum products in the year FY 2020. The company has over 32% of the national refining capacity and 71% downstream sector throughput capacity. This overall indicates the scale of business for the company. Indian Oil also owns and operates 11 of India’s 23 refineries, with a combined refining capacity of 80.7 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA)

The business model of the company is such that it operates in refining, petrochemicals, LPG and Renewable energy business. The company is the largest refiner in India with 32% market share followed by RIL with 27%. Indian oil has 7,000+ dedicated fuel pumps in operation for large-volume consumers like the defence services, railways and state transport undertakings. The company also has a 60% market share in aviation fuel segment and operates some well-known brands in India like Indane LPG, SERVO lubricants, XTRAPREMIUM, XTRAMILE diesel and PROPEL petrochemicals. From here, we go ahead with Indian Oil Valuation and Intrinsic Value of its shares.

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Read more here: Indian Oil Shares Fundamental Analysis 

Methodology Used:

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows. DCF analysis attempts to figure out the value of an investment today, based on projections of how much money it will generate in the future. The following step by step procedure is followed.

  1. Determining the Revenue Growth Rates
  2. Forecasting the Financial Statements
  3. Deriving the FCFF and FCFE
  4. Calculating the Terminal Value
  5. Calculating the Discount Rate
  6. Discounting the Cashflows
  7. Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares

You can also get the formula based DCF Excel Model from below:

Step 1: Determining the Revenue Growth Rates

We arrive at the below table by using the past and expected future performance of both the company and the economy. This along with adjustments to changes in the management expectations, extraordinary events and other macro factors give the revenue growth rates for Indian Oil Valuation.

Financial Year Revenue Growth Rate
Year 1 -8%
Year 2 -28%
Year 3 22%
Year 4 12%
Year 5 9%
Revenue Growth Rates: Indian Oil Valuation

Step 2: Forecasting the Financial Statements

The financial statements are forecasted for a period of 5 years using the annual report data of the company. The assumptions used for forecasting are tabulated below. The Excel model is completely editable and can be adjusted for specific changes which may happen over a period of time.

Financial Statements Forecast : Indian Oil Valuation

Step 3: Deriving the FCFF and FCFE

Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) represents the amount of cash flow from operations available for distribution after accounting for depreciation expenses, taxes, working capital, and investments. FCFF is a measurement of a company’s profitability after all expenses and reinvestments. It is given as follows.

Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is a measure of how much cash is available to the equity shareholders of a company after all expenses, reinvestment, and debt are paid. FCFE is a measure of equity capital usage.

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F/S Items (INR Millions) Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Free Cash Flow to Firm 382661 597652 -91779 11816 87701
Free Cash Flow to Equity 155725 -634 227236 187732 233940
FCFF and FCFE values: Indian Oil Valuation

Step 4: Calculating the Terminal Value

Terminal value (TV) is the value of a business or project beyond the forecast period when future cash flows can be estimated. It assumes that a business will grow at a set growth rate forever after the forecast period. Terminal value often comprises a large percentage of the total assessed value.

Terminal Value Calculation Units INR Millions
Free Cash Flow to Firm 87701.40
Growth Rate 5.00%
Cost of Capital 9.19%
Terminal Value 2198418.36
Terminal Value: Indian Oil Valuation

Step 5: Calculating the Discount Rate

DCF analysis helps assess the viability of a project or investment by calculating the present value of expected future cash flows using a discount rate. Here we use the Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to discount the cash flow. The below table from the excel model shows the calculation of WACC for Indian Oil Valuation.

WACC Calculation for Indian Oil Valuation.

Step 6: Discounting the Cashflows

The WACC and the Cost of Equity for the company calculated in the above step are then used to discount the FCFF, FCFE and Terminal Value calculated in Step 3 and 4. In our case, we’ll only consider the FCFF based Intrinsic price of the shares as it represents the cash flow to all the suppliers of capital and not only to the equity shareholders. Thus we arrive at Present value of future FCFF for Indian Oil Valuation. (Units are INR Millions)

PV of FCFF and FCFE for Indian Oil Valuation.

Step 7: Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares

Dividing the PV of the FCFF and Terminal Value (the Value of the entire firm) by the number of outstanding shares we get the per share intrinsic value. We can compare this price with the current market price of the stock to get the Discount or Premium to its intrinsic price.

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Indian Oil Valuation Units
PV in INR Million 1752402
No of Shares Outstanding (In Million) 9441
Intrinsic Value 185.62
Current Market Price of Share 92.25
Current Discount/Premium -50%
Intrinsic Value of the Shares: Indian Oil Valuation

Indian Oil Valuation and Intrinsic Share Price = INR 185.62

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References: Investopedia
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You can read more about the company on its website!
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(Note: All the research done by me is only for educational purposes and should not be seen as Investment recommendations. I am a Research analyst and not a SEBI registered Investment Advisor. My research completely reflects my personal opinions and not of my employers. Kindly do your own due diligence before Investing)

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