Laurus Labs Valuation Excel Model and Intrinsic Value of Shares

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Laurus Labs Valuation: About the Company

Laurus Labs is an Indian pharmaceutical company based out of Hyderabad. It is mainly involved in the research and development of active pharmaceutical ingredients of anti-retrovirals and hepatitis C drugs. The company is focused on Innovation and undertake dedicated R&D in areas that have significant growth potential. Laurus Labs has top 10 generic pharmaceutical companies in the world as their clients and sell APIs in 56+ countries

The company operates in the API and drug discovery business and market leadership in such an industry comes from R&D capabilities, Patents and Approvals, Workforce and Resources at disposal.

Laurus Labs has 55+ R&D labs in India and the US along with 90+ APIs manufactured at 8+ facilities across the world. On the Patents and Approvals front, the company has 257+ patents filed and 116+ patents approved. The company also has 3+ million litres of reactor capacity for its API formulations

The business model of the company is such that it operates in 3 major verticals namely Formulations, Custom Manufacturing Services and Generic APIs.

In the formulations business, the company is focused on development, manufacture and sale of APIs and Advanced Intermediates to other pharma companies.

In Custom manufacturing, the company does contract development and manufacturing services for global pharmaceutical companies and execute several late-stage projects. From here, we go ahead with Ashok Valuation and Intrinsic Value of its shares.

Methodology Used:

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows.

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DCF analysis attempts to figure out the value of an investment today, based on projections of how much money it will generate in the future. The following step by step procedure is followed.

  1. Determining the Revenue Growth Rates
  2. Forecasting the Financial Statements
  3. Deriving the FCFF and FCFE
  4. Calculating the Terminal Value
  5. Calculating the Discount Rate
  6. Discounting the Cashflows
  7. Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares

You can also get the formula based DCF Excel Model from below:

Step 1: Determining the Revenue Growth Rates

We arrive at the below table by using the past and expected future performance of both the company and the economy. This along with adjustments to changes in the management expectations, extraordinary events and other macro factors give the revenue growth rates for Laurus Labs Valuation.

Financial Year Revenue Growth Rate
Year 1 27%
Year 2 57%
Year 3 12%
Year 4 18%
Year 5 27%
Revenue Growth Rates: Laurus Labs Valuation

Step 2: Forecasting the Financial Statements

The financial statements are forecasted for a period of 5 years using the annual report data of the company. The assumptions used for forecasting are tabulated below. The Excel model is completely editable and can be adjusted for specific changes which may happen over a period of time.

Financial Statements Forecast : Laurus Labs Valuation
Financial Statements Forecast : Laurus Labs Valuation

Step 3: Deriving the FCFF and FCFE

Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) represents the amount of cash flow from operations available for distribution after accounting for depreciation expenses, taxes, working capital, and investments. FCFF is a measurement of a company’s profitability after all expenses and reinvestments. It is given as follows.

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Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is a measure of how much cash is available to the equity shareholders of a company after all expenses, reinvestment, and debt are paid. FCFE is a measure of equity capital usage.

F/S Items (INR Millions) Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Free Cash Flow to Firm 1579 3086 4201 5434 7421
Free Cash Flow to Equity 3396 15905 4859 9113 16785
FCFF and FCFE values: Laurus Labs Valuation

Step 4: Calculating the Terminal Value

Terminal value (TV) is the value of a business or project beyond the forecast period when future cash flows can be estimated. It assumes that a business will grow at a set growth rate forever after the forecast period. Terminal value often comprises a large percentage of the total assessed value.

Terminal Value Calculation Units INR Millions
Free Cash Flow to Firm 7421.11
Growth Rate 5.00%
Cost of Capital 13.88%
Terminal Value 87776.20
Terminal Value: Laurus Labs Valuation

Step 5: Calculating the Discount Rate

DCF analysis helps assess the viability of a project or investment by calculating the present value of expected future cash flows using a discount rate. Here we use the Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to discount the cash flow. The below table from the excel model shows the calculation of WACC for Laurus Labs Valuation.

WACC Calculation for Laurus Labs Valuation.
WACC Calculation for Laurus Labs Valuation.

Step 6: Discounting the Cashflows

The WACC and the Cost of Equity for the company calculated in the above step are then used to discount the FCFF, FCFE and Terminal Value calculated in Step 3 and 4.

In our case, we’ll only consider the FCFF based Intrinsic price of the shares as it represents the cash flow to all the suppliers of capital and not only to the equity shareholders. Thus we arrive at Present value of future FCFF for Laurus Labs Valuation. (Units are INR Millions)

PV of FCFF and FCFE  for Laurus Labs Valuation.
PV of FCFF and FCFE for Laurus Labs Valuation.

Step 7: Arriving at the Intrinsic Value of the Shares

Dividing the PV of the FCFF and Terminal Value (the Value of the entire firm) by the number of outstanding shares we get the per share intrinsic value. We can compare this price with the current market price of the stock to get the Discount or Premium to its intrinsic price.

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Laurus Labs Valuation Units
PV in INR Million 57303
No of Shares Outstanding (In Million) 106
Intrinsic Value 540.60
Current Market Price of Share 532
Current Discount/Premium -2%
Intrinsic Value of the Shares: Laurus Labs Valuation

Laurus Labs Valuation and Intrinsic Share Price = INR 540.60

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(Note: All the research done by me is only for educational purposes and should not be seen as Investment recommendations. I am a Research analyst and not a SEBI registered Investment Advisor. My research completely reflects my personal opinions and not of my employers. Kindly do your own due diligence before Investing)

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